Escalating Police Recorded Crime Statistics

Data derived from the UK Office for National statistics shows that police recorded crime offences reached an all time high in 2022/23. In this post we dive into this worrying report.

Many are pointing out how the government`s claim that overall crime in the UK has declined by 50% since 2010 is inaccurate and misleading. The claim is based on incomplete crime data derived from the crime survey for England and Wales (CSEW). As we discussed in our previous post on the most recent CSEW these statistics exclude fraud and computer misuse offences and therefore don’t accurately reflect a true measure of overall crime in the UK.

Read more about the government`s claim that ‘overall crime’ has fallen 50% since 2010 at Fullfact.org.

Fraud and computer misuse crimes have only been included in the crime survey since 2015 and purposely excluded from the crime survey statistics to enable realistic longer term crime statistic comparisons. 2015 Was the first year in which questions about fraud and computer misuse were included in the survey and these were not published until 2017 when sufficient data had been collected. At that time the Office For National Statistics made it clear that the new figures, including fraud and computer misuse data, were not directly comparable with data collected from previous years.

It has been clearly pointed out that if fraud and computer misuse crime figures were included the true total crime statistics will have shown a 14 % increase in crime between the year ending September 2019 and the year ending September 2021.

Police Recorded Crime Offences 2002-2023

Reports recently published by Statista.com show how the overall number of police recorded crime offences in England and Wales, over the long-term period from 2002 to 2023, have reached a peak in 2022/2023. In this most recent year approximately 6.74 million offences were recorded by police forces, the highest figure since 2003/2004. In 2021/2022 the number was 6.34 million and in 2019/2020 the figure was about 6 million.

COVID-19 restrictions resulted in a low number of crimes (5.4 million) being recorded by police forces in 2020/2021. But even this relatively low figure is much higher than the previous low of 4 million offences recorded for 2013/2014.

As can be seen, the previous peak occurred in 2003/2004 when police forces recorded around 6 million offences.

Crime Rates by Area

Police recorded crime rates per 1,000 people, derived from various police force areas across the UK, vary enormously. At the top of the list is Cleveland with 147.7 crime offences per 1,000 people. High crime rates are also recorded from other areas in Northern England such as West Yorkshire with 133.8 crimes per 1,000 people and Greater Manchester at 129.7.

At the other end of the scale, in Devon and Cornwall just 58.4 crimes per 1,000 people were recorded. And interestingly the North Yorkshire area contrasts with other northern regions with only 60 crimes per 1,000 people.

Crime Trends in England and Wales

As we acknowledged in our previous post, police recorded crime figures alone don’t provide a good indication of crime trends. Combining police recorded crime data with crime survey results provides a more complete picture of crime in the UK.

Police recorded crime figures are based on behaviour that is classed as criminal and are not reliant upon how victims interpret their experiences. And crime statistics derived from police forces are influenced by a variety of factors such as regional prioritisation that can result in some crimes not being considered worthy of investigation. It`s also important to be aware that not all crimes are reported to the police and reported crimes may not be recorded as offences by police forces.

Police recorded burglary offences, for example, have been declining over the past 20 years. In 2022/2023 there were 275,919 recorded burglaries in England and Wales, slightly lower than the preceding year. But back in 2002/2003 around 900,000 burglary offences were recorded, over three times as many as the latest report.

Police recorded theft offences for 2022/2023 show an 11% decline compared with pre-COVID statistics. These figures include an apparent 28% decrease in all burglary offences. But it has been noted that levels of theft increased by 15% year-on-year from 2021/2022 to 2022/2023. This apparent increase was seen across most theft sub-categories such as shoplifting, which escalated by 24% over this period.

Police recorded fraud offences increased by 15% to 1.1 million offences in 2022/2023 compared with the previous year. But this notable increase is primarily attributed to reports from members of UK Finance, a trade association for the UK banking and financial services sector.

Why are Crime Rates Increasing?

It has been noted that although the crime survey for England and Wales showed a downward trend in violent crimes, police recorded violent crime statistics increased over the same time period between 2022 and 2023. One of the reasons cited for these differences is how the police system for recording crimes changed.

As shown in the statistics, police recorded crime levels were at their lowest over 2013 and 2014, having fallen from around 6 million in 2003/2004 to around 4 million. But this figure has now escalated to almost 7 million in 2022/2023. Multiple causes are recognised as contributory factors but cuts to public services across the UK is widely accepted as a primary reason. As police funding decreased the number of police officers declined and the number of police recorded crimes escalated.

It is also noted that certain types of crime have historically been under-reported. Recorded sexual offences, for example, have increased since 2012/2013 due to greater public awareness and people becoming more inclined to report these offences to the police. Police investigations into historic sexual offences is also thought to have contributed to increasing crime figures for this offence category.

Low Number of Crimes being Solved

The HM Inspectorate of Constabulary has ordered UK police forces to quickly get a grip on the low number of crimes being solved. They point out the need for a concerted effort across all police forces to understand the issues they face and work to achieve better outcomes for victims.

Analysis of Home Office crime figures for 2021-2022 from England and Wales showed that only 11% of reported offences resulted in perpetrators being fined, prosecuted or brought to justice. The inspectorate noted how the rate of crime solving has been declining since 2015 and highlights declining police performance.

Although there has been a widely publicised £3.6bn programme to recruit 20,000 new police officers this influx of new recruits has created some challenging problems. It is now estimated that 38% of officers in England and Wales have under 5 years experience and this is resulting in mis-allocation of sensitive cases to officers who don’t have appropriate and necessary experience. Questions have also been raised about the quality of new police recruits and vetting procedures, following a number widely publicised police scandals.

Public trust and confidence in the UK police is at an all-time low making it essential for police forces to quickly take appropriate steps to make effective improvements. And the public need to be aware of of what they can do to protect themselves and remain secure.

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